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Session: Heliophysics and the Solar System

Name: Dr. Manolis Georgoulis (Academy of Athens, RCAAM)
Coauthors: No coauthors were included.
Type: Oral
Title: Fundamental Understanding and Forecasting of Solar Energetic Events
Abstract:

We attempt a brief but hopefully encompassing overview of the solar energetic events that impact the ever-changing space weather conditions in the heliosphere, with a further aim to present desired methodologies employed to predict these events and their repercussions. Eruptive manifestations of interest are solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. A basic physical understanding of their triggering and interconnections helps guide the objectives of the forecast methods employed. In recent years, predictive methodologies have evolved to include artificial intelligence applications such as machine- and deep-learning methods. We report that no winning methodology (and no winning data set) has been designated so far for forecasting and that machine- and deep-learning methods are by no means a panacea. We also briefly touch on the pressing needs and gaps of knowledge that must be tackled in order to facilitate a transformative, decisive improvement in solar and space weather forecasting. The presentation draws from and delineates a roadmap paper written synergistically in the framework of COSPAR’s International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT), that also aims to project into future developments, in both the sort (i.e., within 5 years) and the long (10 years or more) term.